TDP supremo and AP Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s 2019 election games have begun. While this is evident with the way he is talking to regional allies and uniting all the anti-BJP forces onto one platform, will he be able to repeat the 1996 magic of the United Front by cobbling up the allies?
How United Front formed government in 1996
India’s first Hindu nationalist government collapsed after just 13 days in power, as Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned rather than face a vote of confidence in Parliament that his party was sure to lose. H.D. Deve Gowda, leader of a multi-party alliance of leftist and regional parties which was called United Front, became the Prime Minister. The formation of the United Front in 1996 came about with the sole objective of keeping BJP out of power.
Deve Gowda’s ascension to the post of the Prime Minister marked a shift in India’s traditional power alignments away from the upper castes and the Hindi-speaking north, which traditionally have controlled the national government in Delhi. However, the Gowda government couldn’t last long when Congress decided to pull the plug and demanded a change in leadership after which I.K. Gujaral was chosen as the Prime Minister.
This fragile nature of the United Front became a powerful poll plank for the BJP. In 1998, the government lasted only 13 months, but in 1999, it returned to power and was able to form the first, stable National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government that ran for a full five years.
Why it will be difficult for Chandrababu in 2019
As the 2019 Lok Sabha elections near, political parties such as the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Aam Aadmi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party of UP, Telugu Desam Party of Andhra Pradesh, DMK from Tamil Nadu, JD(S) from Karnataka and other regional allies as well as the Congress (as a national party) have stepped up efforts to forge a wider pact against BJP.
On the other hand, after severing ties with NDA earlier this year, Telugu Desam Party took a huge risk by shifting its political equations. After 40 years of political rivalry, TDP decided to ally with Congress nationally and to unite other allies to create the Alternative Front. (However, he has clarified that the TDP will not contest with the Congress in Andhra Pradesh). While this definitely seems like a sudden chance for regional players to re-emerge on the national political scene as Kumaraswamy said “it will be a repeat of 1996,” there is a lot at stake this time.
The alternative front has several contenders for the PM position, excluding Chandrababu who has made it clear that he is not a PM-aspirant. Apart from veterans like Deve Gowda and Sharad Pawar, there is Mamata Banerjee who sees herself as a potential PM candidate against Modi. Similarly, there is Mayawati who assumes that she could be the Dalit-PM candidate. Above all, there is Rahul Gandhi from the Congress who the National Party has been pitching as its PM candidate against Modi. Amid all this, there is no guarantee that Congress will not flip its decision if the Alternative Front comes to power. Similarly, regional allies too could pull out due to infighting.
Naidu, who is emerging as the kingmaker once again and calling himself the “facilitator”, is very well aware that the United Front of 1996 wasn’t stable. On one hand, he knows that there is a risk of coalition partners having differences amongst themselves and affecting the stability of the alternative front if it forms the government. On the other hand, he is very well aware that Narendra Modi still enjoys popularity in the Hindi-speaking belt of India as against regional leaders of the South. But, this time, it is not about just forming an alternative front, but also recognising regional allies and representing them at the Centre in the backdrop of Narendra Modi government undermining public institutions like the CBI, RBI and EC as well as neglecting non BJP-ruled states.
Most importantly, the India of today is not the India of 1996. The India of today is a result of the rapid economic progress and technological advancement over the last three decades. And, its citizens are more politically conscious today as they are bombarded with information from various sources round-the-clock. Therefore, it will be a tough task for Chandrababu to keep coalition partners together amid a publicity blitzkrieg of the BJP and its allies.
(This post was first published on Gulte.com)
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